Introduction:
Middle East and Northern Africa. Fascinating but Volatile in the same time. Luxury and Poverty, Evergreen Gardens and Deserts coexist for centuries in the same area.
Traditionally, the economy of the norther African and Middle Eastern states, from Mesopotamian times until our days is mainly focused on trade.
Trading either with foreign goods, or with their own "internally" manufactured products, the inhabitants of this region have a long tradition of being skilled traders and shipowners. The coast of northern Africa with it's Mediterranean harbors or the trading hubs in the Arabian Peninsula were strategic elements in the development of this region.
19th and 20th century. Industrialization. Engines. Crued oil. Among other locations in the world, like Siberia, Venezuela, Norway, Russia, Middle East became of interest for the Western World as well. After discovering probably the largest oil reserves on the globe, the interest and the struggle to influence this area became a fact.
Preconditions
Crued oil is used mainly in the petrochemical industry for producing plastics, fuel, paint and others.
What happens, when major North African or Middle East political regimes begin to shiver, while armed forces fight on the streets of the capital? Recently in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Bachrein, Oman. And these are minor oil exporting countries, imagine the same type of ryots in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates..
Allthough most of the oil producing & exporting countries have joined the OPEC organization (headquartered in Vienna, Europe), the world's energy market is not yet predictible enough.
For example, after the Libyan crisis started, US light crude rose by $1.95 to $106.75 a barrel, the highest since September 2008, and Brent crude gained $2.43 to $118.4.
Concerned that the recent events in Egypt (turnover of the Mubarak regime) could disrupt oil shipments passing through the Suez canal and engulf thMiddle East drove the price of Brent crude oil through the $100 barrier for the first time in over two years. The price of a barrel of the benchmark Brent soared by more than $1.50 up to $101.08 a barrel.
In the central end Eastern part of the European Union, countries do not poses natural crued oil reserves, with one exception - Romania. Hence, importing the oil became a necessity.a major dependency for the local economy.
Effects:
Petrol prizes increased all over Europe in 2010,Greece (+43%), Romania (+24%) Cyprus (+20,9%), Switzerland (+5%), Slovakia (+7,9%) si Sweden (8,7%).
What effects will cause the increase of the price of the barrel up to $200 , in Romania?
Gasoline price: > 7 RON (vs 5 RON 2010]
Inflation: > 10 % [7% 2011]
Euro: > 1,5 USD [from 1,4]
Profit margin of the major Romanian oil company > 2 bn. euro [~0,5bn ]
Weight of crude oil in the GDP: > 10 % [ 5,5% at this point in time]
What new business opportunities (for the IT market) can be identified trough this changes?Let's see and observe
The content of this posting and the related comments are property of Mr. Racz Sandor
